In crypto, “altcoins” refers to any cryptocurrency that isn’t Bitcoin. When Bitcoin emerged, it was the only player in town.
However, as blockchain technology developed, new coins with unique uses and goals emerged, earning the label “alternative coins” or “altcoins.”
These include big names like Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), and Ripple (XRP). Each was designed to tackle specific needs that Bitcoin wasn’t built for:
- Ethereum allows developers to create decentralised applications (DApps) and smart contracts, sparking the entire decentralised finance space.
- Litecoin was made to process transactions faster than Bitcoin, aiming for a quicker digital currency.
- Ripple (XRP) focuses on fast, low-cost international payments, especially useful for banks.
Altcoins play a broad role, from digital cash to powering apps or stablecoins pegged to real-world currencies like the U.S. dollar (USDT). Typically, their value moves with Bitcoin, but each altcoin has unique market dynamics based on its community and adoption. This has led to “altcoin seasons,” those periods when altcoins outperform Bitcoin in terms of growth, capturing traders’ and investors’ attention.
The Outlook on Altcoin Seasons
Crypto analyst Willy Woo recently shared insights into the future of altcoin seasons, predicting that the huge returns seen in past years may be harder to come by as the market matures.
While altcoins will likely keep rising after Bitcoin rallies, Woo suggests that their peaks won’t reach the same intensity, particularly since the explosive days of the 2017 ICO boom are behind us.
According to Woo, smaller and mid-sized altcoins will still have their moments, though they may be shorter-lived.
Bitcoin’s dominance over the market often serves as a signal to switch focus to altcoins. Currently, Bitcoin’s dominance is around 59.36%, close to the 60% threshold that many analysts see as a key point for a possible altcoin rally.
However, this time around, Woo suggests that the current altcoin activity is largely driven by “meme coins”—tokens inspired by internet memes and trending ideas—rather than traditional blockchain projects.
Meanwhile, Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, believes that the next bull market will be Bitcoin-focused, especially around Bitcoin’s layer-2 solutions, which add speed and efficiency to its network.
Bitcoin’s Rise Pulls Focus Away from Altcoins
Bitcoin’s impressive price surge in October has only intensified this shift. Since mid-September, Bitcoin has climbed from $53,000 to $67,000, nearing its all-time high (ATH) of $73,078.
This rally has drawn both capital and interest away from altcoins, sidelining them as Bitcoin inches closer to new records.
With institutional interest rising, Bitcoin’s dominance also climbed 3.45% in October. QCP Capital recently reported that ETF inflows have been robust, showing high demand from institutional players. “Bitcoin dominance continues to rise, reaching 59.75% this week,” QCP noted.
If Bitcoin’s price continues upward, possibly breaking its ATH, dominance could cross 60%, delaying any significant altcoin season as attention stays on Bitcoin’s stability and growth.
According to the BlockchainCenter, an altcoin season typically requires at least 38 altcoins to outperform Bitcoin over 90 days, yet only seven have done so recently.
This limited growth reflects the current market, where altcoins struggle to draw investor interest as Bitcoin’s momentum leads.
Could a Bitcoin Correction Create Space for Altcoins?
At its current trajectory, Bitcoin is inching closer to the $70,000 level, with inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs approaching nearly $998 million in just one week.
If these trends hold into November, Bitcoin could break past $70,000 and possibly set a new ATH, pushing any potential altcoin season even further down the road.
However, some analysts believe a correction around the $70,000 mark could create a brief opening for altcoins.
If Bitcoin investors start taking profits around this level, prices could dip to $65,000, potentially loosening its dominance enough for altcoins to see a temporary boost.
For now, though, the market remains highly Bitcoin-focused, with altcoins mostly waiting in the wings.
The overall altcoin market cap has shown a steady downward trend since March, typically a sign of a pullback.
However, according to wave analysis, the altcoin market cap (ALTCAP) may still have a final growth wave left, which started in December 2023.
If this wave breaks out from its current downward trend, it could reach a market cap of $1.61 trillion—a potential 77% gain. But for a strong alt season to take hold, Bitcoin’s dominance would need to decrease alongside a solid upward move in ALTCAP.
Conclusion
As Bitcoin pushes towards new highs, altcoins face a quieter season. Woo’s predictions indicate a maturing market where altcoin seasons may see softer peaks than before.
With Bitcoin now near ATH levels, institutional interest high, and dominance growing, altcoins are left competing for attention. Only a shift in Bitcoin’s momentum could give altcoins a real chance to shine, but for now, the conditions remain unfavourable for a true altcoin season.
Editor: Lydicius
